Drones and the Future of Air Defense and Security: A Global and Canadian Perspective

By: Colonel (ret) Bernie Derbach, KR Droneworks, 06 Jan 26

The horizon of modern warfare and national security is no longer defined by the roar of jet engines alone, but by the persistent hum of electric motors and the silent processing of artificial intelligence. We have entered the era of the "un-crewed revolution."

As we move into 2026, the integration of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)—commonly known as drones—has transitioned from a niche tactical advantage to the very foundation of global security architecture.

From the high-intensity battlefields of Eastern Europe to the sovereign patrols of the Canadian Arctic, drones are rewriting the rules of engagement. This blog explores the shifting paradigm of air defense, the rise of autonomous swarms, and how Canada is positioning itself to defend against—and utilize—the most disruptive technology of the 21st century.

1. The Global Landscape: The Rise of the "Attritable Mass"

For decades, air superiority was the exclusive domain of wealthy nation-states capable of fielding billion-dollar fleets of manned fighter jets. Today, that monopoly has been shattered. The central theme of global air defense in 2025 and 2026 is "attritable mass"—the deployment of high volumes of low-cost, disposable drones that can overwhelm even the most sophisticated traditional defense systems.

The Lessons of Modern Conflict

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have served as the world’s most intense laboratories for drone technology. In these theaters, we have seen:

• First-Person View (FPV) Dominance: Cheap, consumer-grade drones modified with explosives have become the primary "sniper" and "artillery" of the front lines.

• Deep Penetration Strikes: Long-range "one-way" attack drones, such as the Shahed series (now evolving with jet-propulsion for increased speed), are striking infrastructure hundreds of kilometers behind enemy lines, forcing nations to rethink their domestic air defense umbrellas.

• Maritime Integration: Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) have worked in tandem with aerial drones to challenge traditional naval power, proving that the drone threat is multi-domain.

The "Oppenheimer Moment" of AI

As we enter 2026, the conversation has shifted from remote-controlled flight to true autonomy. The "OODA Loop" (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)—the cognitive cycle of a human operator—is being bypassed. AI-driven drones can now navigate GPS-denied environments using computer vision and sensor fusion, making decisions in milliseconds.

This led industry leaders to describe 2025 as the "Oppenheimer moment" for AI in defense: the point where autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) became a battlefield reality rather than a theoretical risk.

2. Emerging Global Trends: Swarms and Loyal Wingmen

Looking toward 2026 and beyond, three technological trends are dominating the global defense market, which is projected to grow to over $1.4 trillion by 2032.

Drone Swarms: Strength in Numbers

The next evolution is the autonomous swarm. Unlike a group of individual drones controlled by multiple pilots, a swarm acts as a single, hive-minded entity. If one drone is jammed or destroyed, the AI redistributed its mission tasks to the remaining units. These swarms are designed to "saturate" air defenses—firing more targets than a Patriot or Iron Dome system has interceptors to stop.

Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)

Air forces in the U.S., China, and the UK are developing "Loyal Wingmen"—un-crewed jets that fly alongside manned fighters like the F-35. These drones act as sensor extensions, decoys, or weapons platforms, allowing human pilots to stay out of high-risk "kill zones."

Counter-UAS (C-UAS): The Shield Against the Sword

As the "sword" of drone technology sharpens, the "shield" must evolve. Traditional missiles are too expensive to use against $500 drones. The future of air defense lies in:

• Directed Energy Weapons (DEW): High-energy lasers and high-power microwaves that can disable drone electronics at the speed of light for cents per shot.

• Electronic Warfare (EW): Sophisticated jamming and "protocol manipulation" that hijacks the drone's command link or spoofs its GPS.

• Kinetic Interceptors: Smaller, cheaper "anti-drone drones" designed to ram or net incoming threats.

3. The Canadian Context: Defending the "North, Strong and Free"

Canada finds itself at a unique crossroads. With the second-largest landmass in the world and the longest coastline, the challenge of monitoring and defending sovereign territory is immense. In response, the Canadian government has recently pivoted its defense strategy to prioritize drone and counter-drone capabilities.

Our North, Strong and Free (2024/2025 Strategy)

Released in April 2024, Canada’s new defense policy, Our North, Strong and Free, identifies Arctic security as the nation's "most urgent task." The melting of Arctic ice has opened new transit routes and increased the presence of foreign actors, making "persistent surveillance" a necessity.

• Arctic Surveillance: The Department of National Defence (DND) is investing billions in high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) drones to monitor the North. These "eyes in the sky" will complement the new Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar (OTHR) systems.

• Space-Based Integration: DND’s "Defence Enhanced Surveillance from Space" project will link drone data with satellite constellations to create a "digital dome" over the Canadian Arctic.

Counter-Drone Priorities and "The Sandbox"

Canada has recognized a critical "capability gap" in defending its troops against Class 1 (small) drones. To bridge this, the government has launched several initiatives:

• C-UAS Sandbox 2024: Hosted at CFB Suffield in Alberta, this event brought together global innovators to test "detect and defeat" technologies. The focus was on systems that can be integrated into existing military command-and-control structures (like Link 16).

• Urgent Operational Requirements (UOR): In 2024 and 2025, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) accelerated the procurement of vehicle-mounted and dismounted (handheld) jammers for troops deployed on Operation REASSURANCE in Latvia.

• Budget 2025: The federal budget allocated $17.9 billion over five years to military capabilities, specifically naming counter-drone and long-range precision strike as top investment priorities.

The Domestic and Commercial Shift

Beyond the military, Transport Canada has modernized regulations to support the "drone economy." As of November 2025, new rules allow for:

• Lower-risk BVLOS (Beyond Visual Line of Sight): Enabling drones to be used for inspecting critical infrastructure like pipelines and power lines over vast distances.

• Medium-Sized Drones: Allowing drones up to 150 kg to operate within visual line of sight for logistics and emergency response.

  
  

This regulatory shift is not just about commerce; it is about security. By fostering a domestic drone industry (led by companies like Volatus Aerospace and Arcfield Canada), Canada ensures it has a "sovereign defense industrial base" to call upon in times of crisis.

4. Challenges: Ethics, Law, and the "Grey Zone"

The future of drone-based security is not without peril.

• Sovereignty in the "Grey Zone": Drones allow adversaries to conduct "grey zone" operations—actions that fall below the threshold of open war but undermine security. Tracking "dark" drones (those not broadcasting their location) over Canadian cities or military bases remains a significant challenge for the RCMP and CAF.

• Accountability: As AI takes more control over the "kill web," the international community is struggling to define who is responsible when an autonomous system makes a mistake. Canada has joined international dialogues (such as at NATO) to advocate for "meaningful human control" over lethal systems.

• Privacy: The same drones used for border security can be repurposed for domestic surveillance, raising concerns about the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms in an era of ubiquitous aerial eyes.

5. Conclusion: The Path Forward

By 2026, drones have moved past the "novelty" phase to become the central nervous system of modern air defense and security. For a country like Canada, the "uncrewed revolution" is both a threat and a massive opportunity. The vastness of the Canadian North can finally be monitored in real-time, but only if the nation continues to invest in the AI and satellite infrastructure required to support these platforms.

The future of security will be won by those who can most effectively integrate human judgment with machine speed. As Canada rearms and reinvests, the goal is clear: to ensure that the "North, Strong and Free" remains protected by a shield that is as technologically advanced as the threats it faces.

References

1. Transport Canada (2025). 2025 Summary of changes to Canada's drone regulations. [Online]. Available: tc.canada.ca

2. Department of National Defence (2024). Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence. [Online]. Available: canada.ca/en/department-national-defence

3. Government of Canada (2025). Budget 2025: Protecting Canada's sovereignty and security. [Online]. Available: budget.canada.ca

4. CEPA (2025). How are Drones Changing War? The Future of the Battlefield. Michael Newton. [Online]. Available: cepa.org

5. Spherical Insights & Consulting (2025). Global Commercial Drone Market Size and Forecast (2025–2035). [Online].

6. Montreal Institute for Global Security (2025). AI-drones: The Future of Defense and Security. Matthews & Lamensch. [Online]. Available: migsinstitute.org

7. Unmanned Airspace (2024). Canada announces C-UAS Sandbox 2024 to assess innovative, agile solutions. [Online]. Available: unmannedairspace.info

8. UAV-Defence (2025). The Future of Autonomous Drone Swarms in Modern Warfare. [Online]. Available: uav-defence.com